STRATEGIC PLANNING

Model Decades Ahead

Answer "what if?" instantly. Run Monte Carlo simulations. Forecast liquidity across decades. Make strategic decisions with confidence—not guesswork.

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Three Ways to Plan Your Portfolio

Deterministic Scenarios

Model specific assumptions: "What if we commit $10M to this fund?" See exact impact on allocation, liquidity, and performance.

Best for:

  • • IC meeting prep
  • • Commitment impact modeling
  • • Rebalancing planning
  • • Quick what-if analysis

Monte Carlo Simulations

Run 1,000+ iterations to see probability distributions. Understand range of outcomes, tail risks, and confidence intervals.

Best for:

  • • Risk assessment
  • • Probability-weighted planning
  • • Tail risk analysis
  • • Portfolio stress testing
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Multi-Year Liquidity Planning

Forecast capital calls + distributions quarterly for next 2-5 years. Know exactly when you'll need cash and when you'll have capacity.

Best for:

  • • Commitment pacing strategy
  • • Cash reserve planning
  • • Bridge financing avoidance
  • • Generational wealth planning

Questions Scenarios Answer

"What if we commit $15M across 3 new funds this year?"

Instant impact analysis: allocation shifts to 68% PE (from 62%), liquidity drops to $8M by Q3 2026 (from $22M), vintage 2025 becomes 18% of portfolio (concentration risk). Recommendation: Stagger commitments across 2 years to maintain liquidity buffer.

"What's the probability we need bridge financing?"

Monte Carlo with 1,000 iterations: 12% probability of needing $5M+ in Q3 2026 (peak capital call period). P90 scenario requires $8.2M. Recommendation: Secure $10M credit facility or reduce 2026 commitments by $5M.

"Where will we land in 2030 under different return scenarios?"

Base case (15% blended IRR): $685M portfolio value. Upside (+5% better): $847M. Downside (-5% worse): $542M. 75% probability of $600M+ exit value. Plan commitments accordingly.

"Should we shift 10% from VC to buyout?"

Compare scenarios side-by-side: Current allocation: $120M VC, $180M PE. Proposed: $80M VC, $220M PE. Impact: Lower volatility (-8%), slightly lower expected return (-1.2%), better liquidity profile (+$12M distributable 2027-2029). Trade-off: Worth it if risk reduction is priority.

"What if USD weakens 15% vs EUR over next 3 years?"

Your EUR-denominated funds (3 funds, $45M) would be worth $52M in USD terms. Total portfolio up 2.1% from FX alone. But: Reduces need for EUR commitments. Model shows optimal: reduce EUR allocation from 25% to 18% to avoid over-concentration.

Monte Carlo Simulation Capabilities

What Gets Simulated

  • Fund Returns: Sample from distributions (normal, lognormal, beta)
  • Exit Timing: Model distribution timing variability
  • Deployment Pace: Vary capital call schedules
  • Currency Volatility: FX rate uncertainty over time
  • Correlations: Model inter-fund dependencies

What You Get

  • Probability Distributions: See range of outcomes (P10, P50, P90)
  • Confidence Intervals: 75%, 90%, 95% confidence bands
  • Tail Risk Analysis: Worst-case and best-case scenarios
  • Sensitivity Analysis: Which assumptions matter most
  • Risk Metrics: Downside risk, volatility, VaR

Liquidity Planning Across Decades

Why Liquidity Planning Matters

Private funds call capital unpredictably. Distributions are uncertain. You're committing to 10-15 year illiquid investments.

Without visibility into future cashflows, you either: over-commit and scramble for cash later, or under-commit and miss opportunities.

What Nagare Forecasts

  • Capital calls by quarter, by fund
  • Distributions by quarter, by fund
  • Net cashflow (calls - distributions)
  • Cumulative cash position over time
  • Unfunded commitments by vintage
  • Public portfolio liquidity
  • Reserve requirements

Alerts You Get

  • ⚠️3+ funds calling capital same quarter
  • ⚠️Liquidity dropping below reserve target
  • ⚠️Commitment pace exceeds distribution pace
  • ⚠️Unfunded commitments > cash + public liquidity
  • ⚠️Currency exposure creating cashflow mismatch
  • ✓Safe to commit (liquidity buffer healthy)
  • ✓Upcoming distributions creating capacity

Compare Scenarios Side-by-Side

Create multiple scenarios, compare outcomes, make data-driven decisions

Current Allocation

$685M

62% PE, 25% VC, 13% Other

Shift to Buyout

$712M

68% PE, 20% VC, 12% Other

Shift to VC

$698M

55% PE, 32% VC, 13% Other

Recommended: Shift to Buyout (+$27M, 3.9% portfolio lift, lower risk)

Explore Other Solutions

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Private Funds

Manage PE, VC, real estate, and credit funds with J-curve modeling and capital call forecasting.

Public Portfolios

Track stocks, ETFs, and bonds with AI-powered import from 100+ custodians.

Plan With Confidence, Not Guesswork

Model scenarios instantly. Run Monte Carlo simulations. Forecast liquidity across decades. Make strategic decisions backed by data.

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Unlimited scenarios on all plans • Monte Carlo on Institutional+