FOR FAMILY OFFICES & UHNW LPs

Forward-Looking Intelligence for Private Markets

Managing 20-60+ private fund commitments across PE, VC, Credit, and Real Estate? Stop making $50M decisions with 9-month-old marks and Excel models held together by hope.

Free for up to 10 private funds • No credit card required

The Challenge: Managing 30+ Private Funds

You're managing 30+ funds across PE, VC, Credit, and Real Estate.

Your Excel model worked great for the first 10 funds. At 30+, it's breaking.

The Challenge

  • Stale Data Problem
    Q1 marks arrived in October. You're making Q4 decisions with March data.
  • Commitment Deadline Panic
    GP wants $10M answer by Friday. Excel model rebuild = 3 days. You're guessing.
  • Excel Formula Mystery
    "This worked last quarter. I changed nothing. Now #REF! errors everywhere."
  • Version Chaos
    Is it Model_v23_final_FINAL_USE_THIS.xlsx or the one Alex emailed?
  • Currency Hell
    USD + EUR + GBP + CHF funds. Manual FX = compound errors. Numbers feel wrong.
  • Analyst Burnout
    40 hours/quarter copying GP statements. Hired for strategy, doing data entry.
  • IC Delays
    "What if we skip Fund X?" Need 2 days to rebuild model. Meeting adjourned.

The Solution

  • Current Portfolio View
    Blend latest marks with real cashflows. Project to current (not 9 months ago).
  • 30-Second Commitment Modeling
    Create scenario, add fund, calculate impact. Answer by Friday = same day.
  • Production-Grade Reliability
    Database-backed calculations. No mysterious #REF! errors. It just works.
  • Single Source of Truth
    Real-time team collaboration. No version chaos. Everyone sees same numbers.
  • Multi-Currency Mastery
    180+ currencies. Automatic FX conversions. Daily rate updates. Zero errors.
  • AI-Powered Automation
    Upload GP statements, AI extracts transactions. 40 hours → 2 hours per quarter.
  • Real-Time IC Answers
    Model scenarios while they ask. No meeting delays. Make decisions with confidence.

Planning Engine, Not Portfolio Dashboard

Nagare isn't about reporting where you've been—it's about planning where you're going.

🎯

Model New Commitments

"Can I commit $15M to this fund and still meet my liquidity needs?"

Model the impact in under a minute: NAV change, cashflow timeline, allocation shifts, and liquidity impact over the next 8 quarters. Answer same day with a data-backed recommendation.

💧

See Capital Calls Coming

"When will I need $30M+ for capital calls across all funds?"

See 2+ years of capital calls and distributions across your private funds. Understand where cash will come from (money market, public holdings, distributions) before GPs call capital.

Stress-Test Downside

"What happens if equity markets drop 30% and one GP underperforms?"

Run market-linked Monte Carlo across the whole portfolio. See P10 / P50 / P90 outcomes, liquidity crunch risk, and which funds or vintages drive downside so you can plan before it happens.

The Difference

Portfolio Dashboards (Kubera, Addepar)

  • Show where you are (aggregation/reporting)
  • Static views, manual updates
  • Limited scenario capabilities
  • Can't model commitment decisions

Nagare (Planning Engine)

  • Show where you're going (planning/scenarios)
  • Dynamic what-if modeling in seconds (not days of Excel rebuilds)
  • Market-linked Monte Carlo for P10/P50/P90 outcomes
  • AI that turns GP reports into live actuals (no manual re-typing)

The Technical Foundation

Planning requires infrastructure—here's what powers your scenarios

Fund-Level Projections

Model each fund individually with its own deployment curve, exit timing, fee structure, and growth assumptions. See where every fund is heading—not just portfolio aggregates.

  • Customizable J-curve parameters per fund
  • Stage-aware growth modeling (early vs late)
  • Management fee tracking (on NAV or commitments)
  • Carried interest waterfall calculations

Capital Call Forecasting

Know when capital calls are coming across all funds. Plan liquidity 2+ years out with quarterly cashflow forecasts.

  • Fund-specific deployment schedules
  • Simultaneous call detection (3+ funds same quarter)
  • Unfunded commitment tracking
  • Reserve requirement planning

Distribution Modeling

Forecast when exits will generate distributions. Model exit timing, partial vs full exits, and settlement overlays for realistic cash timing.

  • Multiple exit models (Weibull, Log-Logistic, Mixture)
  • Settlement overlays: 95% upfront + 5% trailing (escrows, lockups)
  • Lines Layer for small portfolios (<50 companies)
  • Industry-calibrated to Cambridge Associates benchmarks

Multi-Vintage Intelligence

See concentration across vintage years, strategies, geographies, and managers. Ensure balanced portfolio construction.

  • Vintage year exposure analysis
  • Strategy mix tracking (PE/VC/RE/Credit)
  • Geography concentration monitoring
  • Manager relationship tracking

Blended Actuals + Projections

Start with latest NAV marks, project forward with fund-level assumptions to current, forecast decades ahead. Always know where you stand AND where you're heading.

  • Last mark date tracking per fund
  • Project to current with cashflow adjustments
  • Forward forecast 3-10-20 years
  • Scenario comparison (base/upside/downside)

Performance Attribution

Understand why performance differs from forecast. Deployment variance, exit timing, mark changes, fee impacts—see the full attribution.

  • Plan vs actual variance analysis
  • Deployment pace tracking
  • Exit timing vs forecast
  • Fee impact quantification
NEW FEATURE

Industry-Calibrated Exit Modeling

Model fund exits with the same sophistication as institutional LPs. Not Excel guesswork—calibrated to Cambridge Associates and Preqin benchmarks.

The Problem with Excel Exit Models

  • Simplistic assumptions: "100% exit in year 5"
  • Ignores exit timing reality (some early, some late, some never)
  • Doesn't match industry data (PE Buyout median: 5.8 years, not 5.0)
  • Small portfolios: Assumes smooth exits (reality: lumpy and concentrated)

How Nagare Models Exits

  • Multiple exit models: Weibull, Log-Logistic, Mixture, Competing Risks
  • Industry-calibrated: 4.9% error vs Cambridge Associates benchmarks
  • Lines Layer: Models realistic exit lumpiness for small portfolios
  • Settlement overlays: 95% upfront + 5% trailing (escrows, lockups)
📊

Multiple Exit Models

Choose the model that fits your fund strategy

  • Weibull: Standard PE/VC timing
  • Log-Logistic: Peaked exits (buyout)
  • Mixture: Early + late exits (venture)
  • Competing Risks: Multiple exit paths
🎯

Small-N Realism

Accurate for portfolios with <50 companies

  • Lines Layer models exit lumpiness
  • Top 2 exits = 58% of value (realistic)
  • Gaussian copula for correlation
  • Critical for most PE funds
🏆

Industry Benchmarks

Calibrated to Cambridge Associates & Preqin

  • PE Buyout: 5.8y median (4.9% error)
  • Growth Equity: 6.2y median
  • Early Venture: 7.7y median
  • 700+ test cases validate accuracy

Live Exit Model Preview

Adjust parameters and see results instantly. Visualize hazard rates, distribution timing, and NAV projections in real-time. No more blind Excel formulas—see exactly what your model is doing.

  • Hazard rate curves show exit probability over time
  • Distribution timeline shows when cash arrives
  • NAV projections show portfolio value evolution
  • Compare scenarios side-by-side instantly
Exit Model Configuration
Model Type:Weibull
Median Exit:5.8 years
P80 Exit:8.5 years
Settlement:95% / 5%
Lines Layer:Enabled
Calibrated to Cambridge Associates PE Buyout benchmarks
🤖

AI-Powered Exit Model Calibration

Our AI agent can analyze fund documents and suggest exit model parameters. Upload a fund deck, and the agent will extract strategy type, portfolio characteristics, and recommend calibrated exit timing parameters.

Example: "Analyze fund deck and calibrate exit model" → Agent extracts buyout strategy, 12 portfolio companies, suggests Weibull with 5.8y median + Lines Layer enabled.

All Private Market Strategies

Private Equity

  • Buyout
  • Growth Equity
  • Fund of Funds

Venture Capital

  • Early Stage
  • Growth
  • Late Stage

Real Assets

  • Real Estate
  • Infrastructure
  • Natural Resources

Credit

  • Private Credit
  • Direct Lending
  • Distressed

What You Can Do

"Should we commit to this $5M fund opportunity?"

Model the impact in 30 seconds. See allocation shifts, liquidity needs, vintage concentration, currency exposure—all updated with the hypothetical commitment.

"When can we commit again?"

View quarterly cashflow forecast for next 2 years. See when capital calls peak, when distributions arrive, when you have capacity for new commitments.

"What's our current PE exposure?"

Latest marks are 7 months old. Nagare projects to current using fund-level cashflows and performance. Know your real position today, not last quarter.

"Where will we land in 2030?"

Fund-by-fund projections with deployment curves, exit timing, growth assumptions, and fees. See expected NAV, TVPI, IRR, DPI across entire portfolio.

"Are we over-concentrated in 2023-2024 vintages?"

View commitments and NAV by vintage year. Identify concentration risk before it becomes a problem. Plan future commitments to rebalance.

AI That Understands Fund Economics

Not just data entry—deep intelligence for private markets

Document Intelligence

Extract data from any GP document format

  • Capital call notices
  • Distribution notices
  • NAV statements
  • Quarterly reports
  • K-1 tax documents

Natural Language Queries

Ask questions in plain English

  • "Which funds are underperforming?"
  • "Show me all 2023 vintage VC funds"
  • "What's my USD exposure?"
  • "When do I need liquidity?"
  • "Compare Fund A vs Fund B"

Automated Insights

AI surfaces issues proactively

  • Liquidity warnings (3+ simultaneous calls)
  • Concentration alerts
  • Forecast drift detection
  • Performance anomaly flagging
  • Currency exposure shifts

Ready to Model Your Private Portfolio?

See your entire private markets portfolio—current position, future projections, and strategic scenarios—in one place.

Free for up to 10 funds • No credit card required