FOR FP&A PROFESSIONALS

Financial Modeling System

Complete technical specification of our financial modeling engine. How we calculate projections, IRR, TVPI, and forecasts for private fund portfolios.

1. Core Performance Metrics

TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In)

TVPIt=NAVt+DistributionsCapital Called\text{TVPI}_t = \frac{\text{NAV}_t + \sum \text{Distributions}}{\sum \text{Capital Called}}

What it measures: Total value created per dollar invested. A 2.5x TVPI means you've generated $2.50 for every $1.00 called.

Example: Capital called: $10M, Current NAV: $15M, Distributions: $5M → TVPI = ($15M + $5M) / $10M = 2.0x

Why you care: Quick snapshot of fund performance. Compare across funds, vintages, strategies.

DPI (Distributed to Paid-In)

DPI=DistributionsCapital Called\text{DPI} = \frac{\sum \text{Distributions}}{\sum \text{Capital Called}}

What it measures: Cash returned per dollar invested. Shows realized returns (not just paper gains).

Typical progression: Early years: Low (0.1-0.3x), Mid-life: Growing (0.5-1.2x), Mature: High (1.5-3.0x)

Why you care: Know how much cash you've actually received. Plan liquidity based on realized distributions.

IRR (Internal Rate of Return)

Solve for r where:

Σ CF(t) / (1 + r)^(t/12) = 0

Where:

• t = months since fund inception

• CF(t) = cashflow at month t (negative for calls, positive for distributions)

• r = annual IRR (what we're solving for)

What it measures: Time-weighted return accounting for timing of cashflows. Industry standard for comparing private market performance.

Calculation Method (Newton-Raphson):

1. Start with guess: r₀ = 0.20 (20%)

2. Calculate NPV: f(r) = Σ CF(t)/(1+r)^(t/12)

3. Calculate derivative: f'(r) = Σ -t·CF(t)/(12·(1+r)^(t/12+1))

4. Update: r₁ = r₀ - f(r₀)/f'(r₀)

5. Repeat until |f(r)| < 0.0001

Converges in 5-10 iterations for typical funds

Real example: Fund with $10M calls over 3 years, $25M distributions over years 5-8. IRR calculation finds r = 24.3% (the discount rate that makes NPV = 0).

Why you care: Compare funds across vintages and strategies. Benchmark against industry (top quartile VC: 25%+, median buyout: 15-18%). Evaluate GP performance.

2. Blended Actuals + Projections

The Core Innovation: Current NAV from Stale Marks

Current NAV = Last Mark + Actual Cashflows + Projected Growth

Where:

• Last Mark = GP-reported NAV as of mark date

• Actual Cashflows = Σ(Capital Calls - Distributions + Fees) since mark

• Projected Growth = Growth Rate × Elapsed Time × Current Capital

The problem: Q1 marks arrive in October showing March 31 data. You need current NAV for Q4 decisions.

Our approach: Start with latest mark, add all actual transactions since mark date, project forward using fund-level growth assumptions.

Real Example:

Last Mark (Q1): $50.0M (as of March 31)

Actual Cashflows (Q2-Q4):

+ Capital Call Q2: $5.0M

- Distribution Q3: $2.0M

- Management Fees: $0.5M

= Net Cashflow Impact: +$2.5M

Projected Growth (6 months @ 12% annual):

$50M × 0.06 = +$3.0M

→ Current NAV (Oct): ~$55.5M

Why you care: Make decisions based on current position (not 9-month-old data). Know your real NAV before committing to new funds.

3. Capital Call Forecasting

Deployment Schedule Modeling

Expected Call(quarter) = Unfunded Commitment × Schedule(quarter)

Schedule varies by fund type:

• VC: Front-loaded (40%, 30%, 20%, 10% over 4 years)

• Buyout: Steady (25%, 25%, 25%, 25% over 4 years)

• Credit: Immediate (80%, 20% over 2 years)

How it works: Each fund type has a typical deployment pattern based on historical data. We apply this to unfunded commitments to forecast when capital will be called.

Example: $10M VC Fund (2024 Vintage)

Unfunded: $10M

Year 1 (2024): $10M × 40% = $4.0M

Year 2 (2025): $10M × 30% = $3.0M

Year 3 (2026): $10M × 20% = $2.0M

Year 4 (2027): $10M × 10% = $1.0M

Why you care: Plan liquidity 2+ years out. Know when multiple funds will call capital simultaneously. Avoid cash crunches.

4. Exit Timing & Distribution Modeling

Weibull Distribution for Exit Timing

Distribution(t) = NAV × Exit Rate(t)

Exit Rate(t) ~ Weibull(k, λ)

k = shape parameter (exit pattern)

λ = scale parameter (timing in months)

Calibrated to industry data: We use Cambridge Associates and Preqin benchmarks to set shape and scale parameters by fund type.

Typical Parameters by Strategy:

Growth Equity: k=2.1, λ=39.6 months (median exit at 3.3 years)

Venture Capital: k=1.8, λ=54 months (median exit at 4.5 years)

Buyout: k=2.4, λ=33 months (median exit at 2.75 years)

Real Estate: k=2.0, λ=36 months (median exit at 3 years)

Why you care: Forecast when distributions will arrive. Plan reinvestment or consumption. Model different exit timing scenarios.

5. Carry Waterfall (European Style)

4-Tier Distribution Waterfall

Step 1: Return of Capital

First $10M → 100% to LPs (return their money)

LPs get their capital back before GP sees any carry.

Step 2: Preferred Return (Hurdle)

Next $0.8M → 100% to LPs (8% hurdle on $10M)

LPs get preferred return (typically 8% compounded) before GP participates.

Step 3: Catch-Up

Next $4M → 100% to GP (until GP has 20% of total profits)

GP "catches up" to their 20% share of profits above hurdle.

Step 4: Pro-Rata Split

Remaining → 80% LPs, 20% GP

After catch-up, ongoing 80/20 split.

Full Example ($25M fund with 2.5x TVPI):

Total Value: $25M

Step 1 (Return of Capital): $10M → LPs

Step 2 (8% Hurdle): $0.8M → LPs

Step 3 (Catch-Up): $4.2M → GP

Step 4 (Pro-Rata): $10M × 80/20 → $8M LPs, $2M GP

LPs net: $18.8M (1.88x net TVPI)

GP carry: $6.2M (20% of profits above hurdle)

Why you care: Understand net vs gross returns. Model carry impact on distributions. Forecast actual LP proceeds.

6. Multi-Currency Handling

Portfolio NAV(USD) = Σ Fund NAV(native) × FX Rate(native→USD)

Where FX rates snapshot at calculation date (not historical averages)

Our approach: Store each fund in its native currency. Convert on-the-fly using daily FX rates. This preserves source data and allows recalculation with different FX assumptions.

Example (3-fund portfolio):

Fund A (USD): $50M × 1.00 = $50M

Fund B (EUR): €40M × 1.08 = $43.2M

Fund C (GBP): £30M × 1.27 = $38.1M

Total Portfolio NAV: $131.3M

Why you care: Accurate cross-currency aggregation. See total portfolio value in your reporting currency. Model FX scenarios.

Questions About Our Financial Modeling?

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